Since the turn of the
century, the global recession has affected most businesses, including
industrial automation. After four years of the new millennium, here are
my views on the directions in which the automation industry is moving.
The rear-view mirror
Because of the relatively small production
volumes and huge varieties of applications, industrial automation
typically utilizes new technologies developed in other markets.
Automation companies tend to customize products for specific
applications and requirements. So the innovation comes from targeted
applications, rather than any hot, new technology.
Over the past few decades, some innovations
have indeed given industrial automation new surges of growth: The
programmable logic controller (PLC) – developed by Dick Morley and
others – was designed to replace relay-logic; it generated growth in
applications where custom logic was difficult to implement and change.
The PLC was a lot more reliable than relay-contacts, and much easier to
program and reprogram. Growth was rapid in automobile
test-installations, which had to be re-programmed often for new car
models. The PLC has had a long and productive life – some three decades –
and (understandably) has now become a commodity.
At about the same time that the PLC was
developed, another surge of innovation came through the use of computers
for control systems. Mini-computers replaced large central mainframes
in central control rooms, and gave rise to "distributed" control systems
(DCS), pioneered by Honeywell with its TDC 2000. But, these were not
really "distributed" because they were still relatively large clumps of
computer hardware and cabinets filled with I/O connections.
The arrival of the PC brought low-cost PC-based
hardware and software, which provided DCS functionality with
significantly reduced cost and complexity. There was no fundamental
technology innovation here—rather, these were innovative extensions of
technology developed for other mass markets, modified and adapted for
industrial automation requirements.
On the sensor side were indeed some significant
innovations and developments which generated good growth for specific
companies. With better specifications and good marketing, Rosemount's
differential pressure flow-sensor quickly displaced lesser products. And
there were a host of other smaller technology developments that caused
pockets of growth for some companies. But few grew beyond a few hundred
million dollars in annual revenue.
Automation software has had its day, and can't
go much further. No "inflection point" here. In the future, software
will embed within products and systems, with no major independent
innovation on the horizon. The plethora of manufacturing software
solutions and services will yield significant results, but all as part
of other systems.
So, in general, innovation and technology can
and will reestablish growth in industrial automation. But, there won't
be any technology innovations that will generate the next Cisco or Apple
or Microsoft.
We cannot figure out future trends merely by
extending past trends; it’s like trying to drive by looking only at a
rear-view mirror. The automation industry does NOT extrapolate to
smaller and cheaper PLCs, DCSs, and supervisory control and data
acquisition systems; those functions will simply be embedded in hardware
and software. Instead, future growth will come from totally new
directions.
New technology directions
Industrial automation can and will generate
explosive growth with technology related to new inflection points:
nanotechnology and nanoscale assembly systems; MEMS and nanotech sensors
(tiny, low-power, low-cost sensors) which can measure everything and
anything; and the pervasive Internet, machine to machine (M2M)
networking.
Real-time systems will give way to complex
adaptive systems and multi-processing. The future belongs to nanotech,
wireless everything, and complex adaptive systems.
Major new software applications will be in
wireless sensors and distributed peer-to-peer networks – tiny operating
systems in wireless sensor nodes, and the software that allows nodes to
communicate with each other as a larger complex adaptive system. That is
the wave of the future.
The fully-automated factory
Automated factories and processes are too
expensive to be rebuilt for every modification and design change – so
they have to be highly configurable and flexible. To successfully
reconfigure an entire production line or process requires direct access
to most of its control elements – switches, valves, motors and drives –
down to a fine level of detail.
The vision of fully automated factories has
already existed for some time now: customers order online, with
electronic transactions that negotiate batch size (in some cases as low
as one), price, size and color; intelligent robots and sophisticated
machines smoothly and rapidly fabricate a variety of customized products
on demand.
The promise of remote-controlled automation is
finally making headway in manufacturing settings and maintenance
applications. The decades-old machine-based vision of automation –
powerful super-robots without people to tend them – underestimated the
importance of communications. But today, this is purely a matter of
networked intelligence which is now well developed and widely available.
Communications support of a very high order is
now available for automated processes: lots of sensors, very fast
networks, quality diagnostic software and flexible interfaces – all with
high levels of reliability and pervasive access to hierarchical
diagnosis and error-correction advisories through centralized
operations.
The large, centralized production plant is a
thing of the past. The factory of the future will be small, movable (to
where the resources are, and where the customers are). For example,
there is really no need to transport raw materials long distances to a
plant, for processing, and then transport the resulting product long
distances to the consumer. In the old days, this was done because of the
localized know-how and investments in equipment, technology and
personnel. Today, those things are available globally.
Hard truths about globalization
The assumption has always been that the US and
other industrialized nations will keep leading in knowledge-intensive
industries while developing nations focus on lower skills and lower
labor costs. That's now changed. The impact of the wholesale entry of
2.5 billion people (China and India) into the global economy will bring
big new challenges and amazing opportunities.
Beyond just labor, many businesses (including
major automation companies) are also outsourcing knowledge work such as
design and engineering services. This trend has already become
significant, causing joblessness not only for manufacturing labor, but
also for traditionally high-paying engineering positions.
Innovation is the true source of value, and
that is in danger of being dissipated – sacrificed to a short-term
search for profit, the capitalistic quarterly profits syndrome.
Countries like Japan and Germany will tend to benefit from their
longer-term business perspectives. But, significant competition is
coming from many rapidly developing countries with expanding technology
prowess. So, marketing speed and business agility will be offsetting
advantages.
The winning differences
In a global market, there are three keys that constitute the winning edge:
- Proprietary products: developed quickly and inexpensively (and
perhaps globally), with a continuous stream of upgrade and adaptation to
maintain leadership.
- High-value-added products: proprietary products and knowledge
offered through effective global service providers, tailored to specific
customer needs.
- Global yet local services: the special needs and custom
requirements of remote customers must be handled locally, giving them
the feeling of partnership and proximity.
To implementing these directions demands
management and leadership abilities that are different from old,
financially-driven models. In the global economy, automation companies
have little choice – they must find more ways and means to expand
globally. To do this they need to minimize domination of central
corporate cultures, and maximize responsiveness to local customer needs.
Multi-cultural countries, like the U.S., will have significant
advantages in these important business aspects.
In the new and different business environment
of the 21st century, the companies that can adapt, innovate and utilize
global resources will generate significant growth and success.
Source:-http://www.automation.com/library/articles-white-papers/articles-by-jim-pinto/the-future-of-industrial-automation
